Q1/2026 MAFSI Business Barometer: Industry Sales Growth for First Quarter Slim at 1.0%; Forecast for Q2/26 Still Muted with Slight Improvement
Industry Sales Growth for First Quarter Slim at 1.0%; Forecast for Q2/26 Still Muted with Slight Improvement
Overall sales for the 1st Quarter of 2026 increased by a slim margin of +1.0% vs. Q1/25.
See SpecPath Projects on Page 5
See the Q1 2026 Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer & 2026 Market Forecast
Overall sales for the 1st Quarter of 2026 increased by a slim margin of +1.0% vs. Q1/25. This result was well short of the mark of +3.5% that had been forecasted. For the past three years, the market has performed within a very narrow and stagnated range, between +2.4% on the upside to -1.0% on the downside.
By Product Category, sales ranged from -0.5% Tabletop, +0.6% Furniture, +0.9% Equipment, to +4.9% Supply.
By Region, sales shrank by -1.3% Midwest, and grew by 0.9% in the West, 1.3% South, 2.3% Canada, and 2.6% in the Northeast, reflective of regional variations.
Both Quoting and Consultant Activity demonstrated improvement in Q1/26 vs. Q4/25 which is consistent with MAFSI's SpecPath project data.
A closer look at SpecPath shows that the 1st Quarter has been the strongest Quarter for the past 4 years. Of concern, however, is that Q1/26 at 880 new projects was 13% below Q1/25's level of 1013 and 10% below Q1/24's data of 981.
MAFSI REPS are forecasting for Q2/26 modest growth of 1.5% led by the West at 4.3%, Northeast 4.0%, Canada at 2.1%, the South at zero, and the Midwest declining by -0.8%.
The foodservice equipment, supplies, tabletop and furniture market worries are led by inflationary pressures which dampen demand, including, food, gasoline, tariffs, and transportation, as well as concerns of the effects of the mid-term elections and the war with Iran.
Executive Summary written by Michael R. Posternak, Chairman of PBAC 3.0, Eastchester, NY 10709 mp@pbacrep.com.
See the Q1 2026 Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer & 2026 Market Forecast.
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