Q4/2025 MAFSI Business Barometer: Q4/25 is the Third Consecutive Quarter of Modest Improvement; Q1/26 Continues To Advance with Forecast at 3.5%

Q4/25 is the Third Consecutive Quarter of Modest Improvement; Q1/26 Continues To Advance with Forecast at 3.5%

Overall sales for the 4th quarter of 2025 rose to 2.4% from 2.1% in Q3/25 and in excess of the 1.7% that had been forecast. 

See SpecPath Projects on Page 5

See the Q4 2025 Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer & 2026 Market Forecast

Overall sales for the 4th quarter of 2025 rose to 2.4% from 2.1% in Q3/25 and in excess of the 1.7% that had been forecast. This was the third consecutive quarter of modest improvement.
 

By product category, sales rose by the following:  Tabletop 4.0%, Supply 3.0%, Equipment 2.1%, and Furniture 1.9%. 

By region, Q4/25 sales were: Northeast 5.3%, West 4.6%, South 2.8%, Canada 1.6%, and Midwest 0.8%. The Northeast was likely spurred by record Wall Street levels as well as a return to the B & I office, post Covid remote work. 

We have now incorporated MAFSI’s SpecPath data as a definitive barometer of business activity and expectations. For the year, the number of projects declined from 3718 in 2024 to 3444 in 2025, a decrease of -7.4%.  For the 4th quarter, projects declined from 908 in Q4/24 to 783 in Q4/25, a shrinkage of -13.4%. 

The Q1/26 sales forecast is for a further increase to 3.5% and for Calendar 2026 a gain of 4.3%. With the benefit of hindsight as this summary is now being constructed, it is unlikely that the quarterly forecast can be met as most manufacturers are talking about a sluggish start to 2026 and, as well, a very tough, snowy winter certainly hasn’t helped the restaurant and travel industry. 

In the past we have experienced and referenced U-shaped, V-shaped, and recently, W-shaped markets. We are now in a K-shaped economy, given the disparity between Wall St. and Main St.   Charles Dicken’s referred  to this phenomenon as “A Tale Of Two Cities” or the gap between the Have’s and Have Not’s.  

There are many counterbalancing factors to watch at this point including: the further impacts of tariffs, inflationary factors, Middle East tensions, wage pressures on the restaurant industry, the growth of meal delivery, and declines in the fast casual and casual dining segments. 

Executive Summary written by Michael R. Posternak, Chairman of PBAC 3.0 LLC,  Eastchester, NY 10709  mp@pbacrep.com.

See the Q4 2025 Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer & 2026 Market Forecast.