Q2/2024 MAFSI Business Barometer: Industry Sales Shrink for the 12th Consecutive Quarter

Industry Sales Shrink for the 12th Consecutive Quarter

Overall, sales for Q2/24 declined for the 12th consecutive quarter, this time into negative territory at -1.0% and short of the forecast for slim growth of +.01%. In comparison, sales for Q2/23 showed a gain of +4.1%.

See the Q2 2024 Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer.

Overall, sales for Q2/24 declined for the 12th consecutive quarter, this time into negative territory at -1.0% and short of the forecast for slim growth of +.01%. In comparison, sales for Q2/23 showed a gain of +4.1%.

Whereas the industry consensus is for a second half rebound, MAFSI Reps are now forecasting further shrinkage for the third quarter at -1.6%.  This is backed up by only 29% stating an increase in Quoting Activity versus 35% last quarter, and only 15% stating an increase in Consultant Activity versus 30% last quarter. Bear in mind, that Reps have “their feet on the street” and “their thumb on the pulse of the market” and have been 99% accurate in their forecasting throughout the history of the MBB.

All regions recorded shrinkage for the second quarter ranging from -0.5% Midwest, -0.8% Canada, -1.0% West, -1.1% South, and 1.5% Northeast.

At best, the industry has entered a period of stagflation (lower sales/higher prices) and is hopefully bottoming out. As inflation lessens and interest rates come down, a recovery should start to come into our sights, perhaps in Q4/24 or Q1/25.

Executive Summary written by Michael R. Posternak, CEO, PBAC & Associates LTD. Eastchester, NY mp@pbacrep.com.

See the Q2 2024 Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer.