Q3/2022 MAFSI Business Barometer: Industry Sales Abate to High Single Digits as Supply and Demand Come into Balance
Overall sales for Q3/22 continued to abate with a still healthy advance of +9.0%, having receded from +17.3%, +15.2%, and +14.3%, over the past year and a record high of +19.1% in Q2/21. This represents the first time in the past 6 quarters that the sales increase was single digit.
The forecast for Q4/22 vs Q4/21 is +8.0%, down from +20.7%, +17.9%, +16.8%, +13.2%, and +11.5%, over the past 6 quarters. Whereas we are now measuring GROWTH ON GROWTH, in the prior year we were measuring GROWTH ON PANDEMIC FACTORS.
Although there currently is no industry wide definitive measurement of Foodservice Equipment and Supply inflation, clearly most price increases over the past year have cumulatively been in the range of 10% to 20% (or higher!). As such, it is logical that's real growth in terms of unit sales, which very few companies actually report, has fallen into negative or at best, very minimal growth.
Both Quotation and Consultant Activity have slowed as shown in the lower performance chart on Page 2 of the report. Aside from the Pandemic period, this is the first time in at least 7 years that more Reps are reporting less Quoting Activity at 32% Less than 29% More for a negative gap of -3%.
Certainly the pipeline is filling up with increased dealer stock and advanced ordering of projects to insure completion when needed and to beat price increases, coupled with the improvement of manufacturer's lead times. The long proven laws of Supply/Demand relationships are coming into balance as business normalizes.
MAFSI will be releasing its detailed annual forecast for 2023 very shortly.
See Full Report - Qtr 3 2022 MAFSI Business Barometer
Executive Summary written by Michael R. Posternak, PBAC & Associates LTD. Eastchester, NY email@example.com.
Learn more about MAFSI's Quarterly Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer Survey.
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This tool is just like it sounds, it is an Excel spreadsheet that has been formatted to calculate the percentages needed for your Quarterly Barometer Survey.
to Rep Firms on 01/19/2023
-Q4/2022: Released to
industry on 02/20/2023
How to Use the MAFSI Commercial Foodservice Business Barometer
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